#Projections

Scenario modelling is a tool used by climate scientists to project what the future might look like based on different scenarios. Now, this same tool is being used to benefit the world's biodiversity and ecosystems.

The Torres Strait region faces potential pressures such as climate change, population growth, biosecurity and pollution risks, and the loss of traditional culture. Community members, leaders, government and scientists came together to find out how they could adapt to these pressures in a way that’s sustainable and equitable, and to identify what makes a community resilient.

What will the weather be like next week, next season, or by the end of the century? In the absence of a second Earth to use in an experiment, global weather and climate model simulations are the only tools we have to answer these questions.

Some climate models show that, under high greenhouse gas emissions, Sydney could be up to 4.8C hotter and have 20% less rainfall by 2090. Others show the Harbour City could warm only by 2.3C and become 25% wetter. How do we deal with such large uncertainty?

What will Australia look like in 2050? Even if we significantly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions as under an intermediate scenario, Melbourne’s annual average climate could look more like that of Adelaide’s, and Adelaide’s climate could be more like that of Griffith in New South Wales.